Utah’s NICS Correlations: How Paychecks and Hunting Spur Background Checks

What happens when a booming economy meets a state full of avid hunters? Utah’s five‑year correlation dashboard sets out to answer that question by comparing NICS background checks with personal income, spending, employment and outdoor activities. It’s a data‑lover’s dream with blue arrows pointing up and gray diamonds marking weaker relationships. Here’s what the chart and a few supporting facts tell us about the Beehive State’s appetite for firearms and fun.

What the Data Shows

The matrix uses the correlation coefficient (r) to gauge how closely two things move together—closer to 1 means they rise and fall in tandem, closer to 0 means they have little to do with each other. It also lists a p‑value to signal whether the relationship is likely real or just random noise (values below 0.05 are statistically significant). Across Utah’s past five years:

  • Personal income is king: Total NICS checks rise sharply with personal income (r ≈ 0.55) and the odds of this being chance are essentially zero. Even handgun and long‑gun checks show moderate ties, though the relationships weaken when permit renewals are stripped out (adjusted checks).
  • Hunting & trapping matters: Participation in hunting and trapping shows a strong connection with total checks (r ≈ 0.51) and a solid moderate connection across adjusted, handgun and long‑gun checks. Shooting and archery follow a similar pattern with slightly lower values.
  • Employment and spending have mixed impact: More jobs and consumer spending correlate moderately with total checks, but the ties aren’t statistically significant for adjusted checks or specific firearm types.
  • No negative surprises: None of the examined factors show a significant negative correlation; the weakest results (gray diamonds) simply suggest no clear relationship.

In plainer terms: When Utahns bring home bigger paychecks and head out into the hills to hunt and shoot, background checks tend to climb. When incomes dip or folks stay indoors, checks cool off.

Economic Context: Utah’s Rocket‑Powered Growth

These numbers make more sense against the backdrop of Utah’s roaring economy. According to the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, the state’s nominal GDP exceeded $300 billion for the first time, and through the first three quarters of 2024 Utah’s real GDP growth led the nation at 4.6 %. Even though unemployment ticked up, it remained a low 3.1 %, well below the U.S. average. When wages rise and jobs are plentiful, it’s no surprise that residents have more disposable income for firearms, licenses and trips to the range. The strong correlation between personal income and total checks in the dashboard echoes this prosperity: paychecks get bigger and so do our gear budgets.

However, notice how the link weakens when looking at adjusted checks (which exclude carry‑permit renewals). This suggests that economic booms drive overall background check volumes, but new firearm purchases might be more influenced by other factors—like the hunting and shooting culture discussed next.

Recreational Roots: Hunting, Trapping and Archery

Outdoor fun isn’t just a pastime in Utah—it’s a serious economic engine. The state’s outdoor recreation sector added $9.5 billion in value to the economy in 2023, accounted for 3.4 % of GDP and supported nearly 71,898 jobs. Hunting, shooting and trapping alone contributed about $331 million. Those big blue arrows in the correlation matrix tell the same story: the more people head out for hunting and archery seasons, the more background checks occur across all firearm types.

For example, both hunting/trapping and shooting/archery show moderate to strong positive relationships with total, adjusted, handgun and long‑gun checks. The p‑values are well below 0.05, meaning there’s only a tiny chance these associations are random. Translation: Utahns who participate in these activities are likely driving demand for new rifles, shotguns and permits. When the hills get quiet and the bows and shotguns stay in their cases, checks taper off.

National Trends vs. Utah’s Story

It’s worth noting that nationwide gun sales have been sliding since their pandemic‑era peak. Analysts estimate about 16.1 million firearms were sold in 2024, down 3.4 % from 2023, and early 2025 data suggest another modest decline. Some states saw sharp drops following new regulations. Utah’s patterns, however, seem cushioned by its booming economy and outdoor culture. While the national market cools, the state’s low unemployment and strong recreation scene appear to keep background checks humming along. The takeaway? Don’t assume national headlines tell the whole story for every state.

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