Colorado NICS Checks vs Economic and Recreation Indicators: What the 5-Year Correlations Suggest

If you’ve ever wondered what’s “moving with” Colorado NICS checks—jobs, spending, hunting participation, or broader shooting activity—this correlation view is a fast way to spot relationships worth paying attention to. In this post, we’ll walk through what the chart shows, which pairings look meaningful over the 5-year window (specific years not shown), and how to use these signals responsibly for planning, budgeting, and season prep.

Outdoor Analytics chart showing correlations between Colorado NICS checks (total, adjusted, handgun, long gun) and economic/recreational indicators with r and p values over a 5-year timeframe.

Quick Take

  • Jobs stand out: Total Employment shows a consistent “move in opposite directions” relationship with Colorado NICS checks, strongest for LongGunChecks (r: -33%, p: 0.004).
  • Consumer spending is mixed: The only statistically significant link here is Total Consumer Spending vs LongGunChecks (r: -24%, p: 0.039).
  • Recreation metrics are mostly weak: Hunting and Trapping shows small, non-significant relationships across all check types.
  • Shooting activity (incl. archery) matters more than hunting: “Shooting Including Archery” is statistically significant for HandgunChecks (r: -24%, p: 0.043) and LongGunChecks (r: -31%, p: 0.009).
  • Use it as a directional signal, not a cause: Correlations tell you what tends to shift together (or opposite), not why.

What the image shows

The visual is a matrix of correlations for Colorado with a Time Frame: 5 years (exact dates not shown). Columns are four NICS background-check series:

  • TotalChecks
  • AdjustedChecks (definition not shown in the image)
  • HandgunChecks
  • LongGunChecks

Rows are grouped into two sections:

  • Economic Factors: Personal Income, Total Consumer Spending, Total Employment
  • Recreational Factors: Hunting and Trapping, Shooting Including Archery

Each cell shows two values:

  • r (correlation coefficient): direction and strength. Negative means they tend to move in opposite directions; positive means they tend to move together. Values closer to 0 are weaker.
  • p (p-value): whether the relationship is statistically significant (the chart notes the common threshold of p < 0.05).

The chart also uses icons to indicate whether a relationship is strong/moderate and whether it’s significant. In this Colorado view, the standout markers appear on LongGunChecks for Total Employment and for Shooting Including Archery, both shown as moderate negative relationships.

The biggest takeaways

  • Employment has the clearest signal. Across TotalChecks, AdjustedChecks, HandgunChecks, and LongGunChecks, Total Employment is consistently negative and statistically significant (p < 0.05 in all four cells).
  • Long gun checks are the most “sensitive” in this view. The largest-magnitude relationships in the whole matrix are tied to LongGunChecks (notably vs Employment and Shooting Including Archery).
  • Personal income isn’t explaining much here. Personal Income has near-zero or small negative r values, all non-significant (p values well above 0.05).
  • Spending isn’t a broad driver—except one lane. Total Consumer Spending is only significant for LongGunChecks (r: -24%, p: 0.039), while other check types are not significant.
  • Hunting and trapping doesn’t line up strongly with checks in this timeframe. All relationships are small and non-significant.
  • General shooting participation (including archery) aligns negatively with HandgunChecks and LongGunChecks. That may be useful for planning, but it does not tell us what causes what.
  • Practical read: Over this 5-year window, when employment is higher, Colorado NICS checks—especially long gun checks—tend to be lower, and vice versa.

Snippet-ready definition: A correlation is a “moves together” (positive) or “moves opposite” (negative) relationship between two trends—it does not prove one causes the other.

Data table from the image

How to read this table: Each row is an indicator (like Total Employment). Each column is a NICS check series. The r value shows direction and strength (negative = opposite direction; positive = same direction). The p value tells whether the relationship is statistically significant in this view (commonly p < 0.05). If you’re scanning fast, look for larger absolute r values (farther from 0) paired with small p values.

Category Indicator TotalChecks (r, p) AdjustedChecks (r, p) HandgunChecks (r, p) LongGunChecks (r, p)
Economic Personal Income r: -1% | p: 0.945 r: 0% | p: 0.970 r: -1% | p: 0.920 r: -13% | p: 0.265
Economic Total Consumer Spending r: -14% | p: 0.240 r: -14% | p: 0.233 r: -16% | p: 0.191 r: -24% | p: 0.039
Economic Total Employment r: -25% | p: 0.033 r: -26% | p: 0.026 r: -28% | p: 0.016 r: -33% | p: 0.004
Recreational Hunting and Trapping r: 6% | p: 0.626 r: 5% | p: 0.678 r: 4% | p: 0.732 r: -8% | p: 0.505
Recreational Shooting Including Archery r: -22% | p: 0.064 r: -23% | p: 0.057 r: -24% | p: 0.043 r: -31% | p: 0.009

What this means for you

Beginners and new owners

If you’re new to the space, the most useful takeaway is that Colorado NICS checks don’t appear tightly tied to personal income in this view—but they do show a consistent relationship with employment. Practically, that means background-check volumes may rise and fall with broader “how stable does life feel” conditions, even if income levels aren’t moving the same way. If you’re planning your first purchase or first season setup, watch for demand swings that can affect availability and wait times.

Hunters

The chart suggests Hunting and Trapping participation isn’t strongly aligned with NICS check volumes over this 5-year window (small r values and high p values across the board). Translation: if you’re trying to predict background-check traffic or purchasing waves based on hunting participation alone, this Colorado snapshot doesn’t support that as a strong signal. You may get better planning value from broader economic conditions (employment) than from hunting activity by itself.

Competitors and recreational shooters

“Shooting Including Archery” is where the recreational side shows more relationship—especially for HandgunChecks (r: -24%, p: 0.043) and LongGunChecks (r: -31%, p: 0.009). Because the relationship is negative, it suggests these measures tend to move opposite each other in this timeframe. The chart doesn’t explain why, but it can still be useful as a planning flag: if your club, range, or league is seeing strong participation trends, the NICS side may not be moving the same direction at the same time.

Retailers, ranges, and brands

If you manage inventory, staffing, or promotion timing, the cleanest signal here is Total Employment. It’s significant across every check type and strongest for LongGunChecks. That makes employment a candidate “macro indicator” to monitor alongside your own sales/traffic dashboards. Meanwhile, Total Consumer Spending only shows a significant link for long guns—so it may be less helpful as a broad planning input unless your product mix leans heavily long gun.

Safety and responsibility reminder: Whatever the trendlines are doing, always follow local laws, manufacturer guidance, and range rules—and prioritize safe storage, safe handling, and training.

Smart next steps

  • Use “employment” as your first checkpoint. If you’re trying to forecast demand swings in Colorado, this chart suggests Total Employment is the most consistent companion signal.
  • Separate long gun and handgun planning. LongGunChecks show the strongest relationships in this view; treat them as their own lane.
  • Don’t overread personal income. In this dataset, income correlations are near zero and not significant—so it’s likely not a useful single-variable predictor here.
  • Cross-check with your on-the-ground metrics. Compare these relationships to your store traffic, range check-ins, match registrations, training class demand, or web analytics.
  • Watch significance + direction together. A bigger r with a low p is more actionable than a similar r with a high p.
  • Document what “AdjustedChecks” means in your reporting. Since the definition isn’t shown in the image, make sure your team uses consistent terminology across dashboards and briefs.

Snippet-ready summary: Over the 5-year period shown, Colorado NICS check volumes—especially long gun checks—tend to be higher when employment is lower, and lower when employment is higher, while hunting participation shows little relationship in this view.

Common questions

Does this chart prove employment changes cause Colorado NICS checks to change?

No. It only shows the two trends tended to move in opposite directions during the time window shown. It doesn’t tell us what caused what.

Why do long gun checks show the strongest relationships here?

The chart doesn’t explain “why,” but it does show that LongGunChecks have the largest negative relationships with Total Employment (r: -33%) and Shooting Including Archery (r: -31%), both statistically significant (p: 0.004 and p: 0.009).

What does “statistically significant” mean in plain English?

In this chart, it means the relationship is unlikely to be just random coincidence in the data (the visualization references a common threshold of p < 0.05).

Why is “Personal Income” basically flat in this view?

Here, Personal Income has very small r values (near 0) and high p values across all check types, which suggests it didn’t move in a consistent pattern with NICS checks over this 5-year window.

Can I use this to forecast demand or inventory?

You can use it as a directional input—especially the employment signal—but it’s best paired with local indicators (store sales, web traffic, range utilization, training enrollment) and seasonality planning.

Conclusion

This Colorado correlation snapshot highlights one clear theme: over the 5-year window shown, Colorado NICS checks (especially long gun checks) tend to move opposite Total Employment, while recreational hunting/trapping participation doesn’t show a strong relationship. If you’re making decisions—whether that’s inventory, scheduling, training plans, or budget timing—treat employment as the primary “macro” signal from this visual, and use the recreation metrics as secondary context rather than a main driver. Check out our interactive NICs Checks Dashboard page for more insights.