Arkansas NICS Checks Correlations (5-Year View): What the Data Suggests About Jobs, Income, and Outdoor Activity

If you’ve ever wondered whether Arkansas NICS checks move with the broader economy—or with outdoor recreation like hunting and shooting sports—this visual is a quick reality check. The dashboard below summarizes a 5-year correlation view for Arkansas, comparing several economic and recreational indicators against four NICS check measures. You’ll learn what’s actually showing up (and what isn’t), plus practical ways to use these signals for planning, budgeting, training, or inventory decisions.

Outdoor Analytics correlation grid for Arkansas showing relationships between NICS checks (total, adjusted, handgun, long gun) and economic/recreational factors with r and p-values over a 5-year timeframe

Quick Take

  • Only one relationship in this view is statistically significant: Total Employment vs TotalChecks (r = -29%, p = 0.012).
  • Most other pairings are small and not statistically significant (p-values well above 0.05), meaning the chart does not show a dependable link in this 5-year slice.
  • HandgunChecks and LongGunChecks show weak relationships with the factors shown (income, spending, employment, hunting/trapping, shooting including archery).
  • What to watch: if employment changes and total checks move in opposite directions again, that may matter for staffing, promotions, training throughput, and seasonal stocking.

What the image shows

This image is a correlation grid titled “Correlations Between NICS Checks and Economic & Recreational Indicators” for Arkansas. A selector shows State Selection: Arkansas and Time Frame: 5 years (the exact start/end dates are not shown).

Across the top are four NICS check measures:

  • TotalChecks
  • AdjustedChecks (definition not shown in the image)
  • HandgunChecks
  • LongGunChecks

Down the left are two groups of factors:

  • Economic Factors: Personal Income, Total Consumer Spending, Total Employment
  • Recreational Factors: Hunting and Trapping, Shooting Including Archery

Each cell shows two numbers: a correlation value (r, displayed as a percent) and a p-value (p). The footer text in the image explains that r indicates the strength and direction of the relationship (values closer to 1 or -1 are stronger; near 0 is weak), and p indicates whether the relationship is statistically significant (usually p < 0.05).

The biggest takeaways

  • Employment is the standout: Total Employment vs TotalChecks shows a moderate negative relationship (r = -29%) and is statistically significant (p = 0.012).
  • Income looks weak here: Personal Income has small relationships with TotalChecks (r = -4%) and modest positives with AdjustedChecks (r = 10%) and HandgunChecks (r = 17%), but none are significant (p > 0.05).
  • Consumer spending doesn’t track checks in this view: Total Consumer Spending ranges from r = -15% to r = 4% depending on check type, with non-significant p-values.
  • Recreation indicators are near neutral: Hunting and Trapping and Shooting Including Archery show small r-values in both directions, with non-significant p-values throughout.
  • “AdjustedChecks” behaves differently than “TotalChecks” here: several pairings shift closer to zero, suggesting the adjustment may reduce noise—but the adjustment definition is not shown, so treat this as a directional observation, not a conclusion.
  • Practical meaning: If you’re planning for demand, this chart suggests you should be cautious about assuming broad economic indicators (income/spending) automatically predict Arkansas NICS activity over this 5-year period.

Snippet-ready definition: In this chart, a correlation is a simple “do these tend to move together?” score: positive means they rise together, negative means one tends to rise when the other falls, and values near zero mean there’s no consistent pattern.

Snippet-ready summary: Over the selected 5-year period in Arkansas, most economic and recreation factors shown do not have a statistically reliable relationship with NICS checks—except Total Employment, which shows a significant negative relationship with TotalChecks.

Data table from the image

How to read this table: Each row is a factor (like Personal Income or Hunting and Trapping). Each column is a NICS check measure. The r value (percent) shows direction and strength (negative = opposite direction; positive = same direction). The p value shows how likely the observed pattern could be due to chance; values below about 0.05 are typically treated as statistically significant.

Factor group Factor TotalChecks (r, p) AdjustedChecks (r, p) HandgunChecks (r, p) LongGunChecks (r, p)
Economic Personal Income r: -4% | p: 0.727 r: 10% | p: 0.409 r: 17% | p: 0.155 r: 8% | p: 0.494
Economic Total Consumer Spending r: -15% | p: 0.198 r: 0% | p: 0.977 r: 4% | p: 0.751 r: 2% | p: 0.874
Economic Total Employment r: -29% | p: 0.012 r: -14% | p: 0.235 r: -15% | p: 0.215 r: -7% | p: 0.587
Recreational Hunting and Trapping r: -13% | p: 0.269 r: 0% | p: 0.984 r: 3% | p: 0.823 r: 3% | p: 0.785
Recreational Shooting Including Archery r: -9% | p: 0.431 r: 4% | p: 0.712 r: 8% | p: 0.486 r: 6% | p: 0.641

What this means for you

If you’re a new shooter or first-time buyer

The big message from this Arkansas view: don’t assume the economy alone predicts “busy periods.” Income and consumer spending show weak, non-significant relationships with the check measures shown. If you’re deciding when to take a class, visit a range, or shop for gear, this chart suggests that broad “economic vibes” aren’t a dependable timing tool by themselves.

Instead, focus on what you can control: setting a training schedule, comparing prices across time, and keeping your purchases aligned with your actual needs and safe storage plan.

If you’re a competitor or training-focused shooter

Competition planning often hinges on range availability, class calendars, and travel logistics—things this chart doesn’t display. Still, the data can help you avoid a common mistake: over-reading small relationships. Most r-values in this view are close to zero and not significant, which means you should treat them like background noise rather than a “signal.”

If your goal is to avoid crowds, you’ll get better results tracking your local match calendar and range peak hours than relying on statewide economic indicators. Consider using this chart as a “sanity check,” not a scheduling engine.

If you’re a hunter

You might expect “Hunting and Trapping” to strongly track long gun checks. In this Arkansas snapshot, it doesn’t: Hunting and Trapping vs LongGunChecks is r = 3% with p = 0.785, which is essentially “no dependable pattern” in this 5-year view.

What to do with that? Use hunting-season planning tools (regs, seasons, land access, and your own scouting timeline) rather than assuming statewide check activity reflects hunter participation in a clean way. This is also a reminder that “NICS checks” can reflect multiple buying motivations, not only hunting.

If you’re a retailer, range, or brand operating in Arkansas

The one statistically significant relationship here is worth attention: Total Employment vs TotalChecks (r = -29%, p = 0.012). A negative value suggests these moved in opposite directions during the selected timeframe. That doesn’t prove cause-and-effect, but it’s a practical prompt to ask: when employment shifts, do customer priorities change (timing, financing, category mix, entry-level vs premium)?

Operationally, this chart argues for diversified forecasting: pair check trends with your own POS history, local seasonality, and promotion calendars. Also note that “AdjustedChecks” often sits closer to zero versus “TotalChecks” in this grid—potentially indicating it behaves like a “smoothed” series—but since the adjustment definition isn’t shown, treat it carefully.

Smart next steps

  • Use the significant result as a hypothesis, not a verdict: track your local check trend alongside local job indicators to see if the inverse pattern repeats in your region.
  • Segment your planning by check type: handgun vs long gun signals differ here, and “TotalChecks” can behave differently than “AdjustedChecks.”
  • Don’t force weak relationships into decisions: most p-values shown are far above 0.05, which is a strong cue to avoid overconfidence.
  • Pair this with real-world drivers you can verify: season calendars, match schedules, retailer promos, and inventory lead times (not shown in the image).
  • Build a “three-input” forecast: your POS + seasonality + one external indicator (like checks) beats relying on any single source.
  • Safety and responsibility reminder: follow all local laws, manufacturer guidance, and range rules; prioritize secure storage and safe handling practices at every stage.

Common questions

What does a negative correlation mean in this Arkansas NICS chart?

It means the two measures tended to move in opposite directions during the selected timeframe. In this image, Total Employment and TotalChecks have a negative r value (-29%), suggesting that when one rose, the other often fell.

Which relationships are statistically significant here?

Only one pairing shown has p < 0.05: Total Employment vs TotalChecks (p = 0.012). All other p-values shown are above 0.05.

Does this prove that employment changes cause NICS checks to change?

No. Correlation in this chart only shows that two things moved together (or opposite) during the period shown. It does not demonstrate cause-and-effect.

Why don’t hunting and trapping numbers strongly match long gun checks in this view?

In this 5-year Arkansas slice, the relationship is very small (r = 3%) and not significant (p = 0.785). That suggests there isn’t a consistent pattern between those two measures in the data shown, at least as summarized here.

What are “AdjustedChecks” in the chart?

The chart includes “AdjustedChecks” as a labeled measure, but the definition is not shown in the image. If you have the dashboard’s methodology note, include it alongside this chart for clarity.

Conclusion

This Arkansas NICS checks correlations view (5-year timeframe) is mostly a story about what doesn’t reliably line up: income, consumer spending, and the recreation indicators shown don’t display statistically significant relationships with the NICS check measures in the grid. The one exception—Total Employment vs TotalChecks—is significant and negative, making it the best “starting hypothesis” if you’re trying to connect checks to broader conditions. Check out our interactive NICs Checks Dashboard page for more insights.